Based on analysis of 3,788 rounds from 1,116 golfers, here’s what golfers actually shoot by handicap level—including scoring ranges and probability of breaking milestone scores like 80, 90, and par.
The chart above shows the average score for each golfer and the 10-90% range. Let’s dive into some analysis.
| Handicap | Avg. Score | Median | 10th-90th Range | Under Par (%) | Under 80 (%) | Under 90 (%) | Under 100 (%) |
| Scratch (0) | 74.6 | 74.4 | 72 – 78 | 7.9 | 96.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 5 Handicap | 79 | 79 | 74 – 84 | 2.1 | 61.6 | 99.3 | 99.3 |
| 10 Handicap | 84.6 | 85 | 80 – 89.7 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 89.7 | 99.3 |
| 15 Handicap | 89.3 | 89 | 83 – 95 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 55.3 | 97.9 |
| 20 Handicap | 93.7 | 93 | 88 – 99 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 91.0 |
| 25 Handicap | 98.6 | 98.3 | 91 – 107.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 53.6 |
What Does A Scratch Golfer Shoot?
📊 Scratch Golfer Scoring (141 rounds)
- Average score: 74.6
- Typical scoring range: 72–77
- Break par: 7.9% of rounds
- Break 80: 96.8% of rounds
- Break 90: 99.5% of rounds
- Break 100: 100% of rounds
Scratch golfers average 74.6, not par. Breaking par happens less than once every twelve rounds—it’s genuinely rare even at scratch level.
Most rounds at 74-76 involve four to seven bogeys, one to two birdies, and the rest pars, not the birdie-filled cards many imagine.
Their “off days” at 78 would have most club golfers celebrating in the car park. The five-stroke typical range (10-90 percentile) shows they rarely lose complete control of a round. When scratch golfers shoot 72, they’re genuinely on fire. When they shoot 76, they’ve just played a normal round where a few putts didn’t drop and they made a few extra bogeys, or a double bogey or two.
What Does A 5 Handicap Shoot?
📊 5 Handicap Scoring (268 rounds)
- Average score: 79.0
- Typical scoring range: 74–84
- Break par: 2.1% of rounds
- Break 80: 61.6% of rounds
- Break 90: 99.0% of rounds
- Break 100: 99.3% of rounds
5 handicaps average 79 and break 80 roughly three times out of five. That means if you play twice at the weekend, you’ll probably break 80 once.
Breaking par is extraordinarily rare—it happens about once every fifty rounds, or roughly once per season if you play weekly.
Their best days (74 or better) match what scratch golfers shoot on average, showing the gap between single figures and scratch is significant. When a 5 handicap shoots 84, they haven’t had a disaster—they’ve just had a normal bad day where a few holes got away from them.
What Does A 10 Handicap Shoot?
📊 10 Handicap Scoring (244 rounds)
- Average score: 84.6
- Typical scoring range: 80–89
- Break par: 0.00% of rounds
- Break 80: 9.6% of rounds
- Break 90: 89.7% of rounds
- Break 100: 99.3% of rounds
10 handicaps average 85 and break 90 nine times out of ten. You’ve essentially graduated from the 90s—shooting 92 is now a genuinely poor round, not just an average Tuesday.
Breaking 80 happens about once every ten rounds, making it a proper achievement worth remembering. The typical 80–89 range (10-90% cutoff) means you’re living mostly in the 80s.
When you shoot 82, you’re having a decent day. When you shoot 88, you shouldn’t be disappointed. The ten-stroke range shows you’re consistent enough to avoid chaos but not yet tight enough to threaten the consistency of a scratch golfer.
What Does A 15 Handicap Shoot?
📊 15 Handicap Scoring (374 rounds)
- Average score: 89.3
- Typical scoring range: 83–95
- Break par: 0.00% of rounds
- Break 80: 1.1% of rounds
- Break 90: 55.3% of rounds
- Break 100: 97.9% of rounds
15 handicaps average 89 and break 90 just over half the time—it’s genuinely a coin flip whether you’ll see 89 or 91 on the card.
Breaking 80 happens roughly once per season if you play twice a week. Your best 10 per cent of rounds (83 or better) show you can play like a 10 handicap when everything clicks.
The eleven-stroke typical range means you’ll shoot 84 one week and 94 the next without changing your swing—it’s usually about avoiding one blow-up hole or holing a few more putts.
What Does A 20 Handicap Shoot?
📊 20 Handicap Scoring (188 rounds)
- Average score: 93.7
- Typical scoring range: 88–99
- Break par: 0.00% of rounds
- Break 80: 1.0% of rounds
- Break 90: 13.0% of rounds
- Break 100: 91.0% of rounds
20 handicaps average 94 and stay under 100 nine times out of ten—you’ve left the triple digits behind on most days.
Breaking 90 happens about once every eight rounds, making it a genuine milestone when it arrives. Your best days at 88 or better show you can match what 15 handicaps shoot on average.
The twelve-stroke typical range means shooting 88 one week and 99 the next is completely normal. Our modelling suggests there is a 1 on 100 chance you will break 80, but this is likely for a 20 handicap who is practicing hard with Break X Golf and getting better quickly.
What Does A 25 Handicap Shoot?
📊 25 Handicap Scoring (116 rounds)
- Average score:98.6
- Typical scoring range: 91–107.2
- Break par: 0% of rounds
- Break 80: 0% of rounds
- Break 90: 7.2% of rounds
- Break 100: 53.6% of rounds
25 handicaps average 99 and break 100 about half the time—it’s the key psychological barrier at this level. Breaking 90 is rare (7 per cent) but possible on days when everything goes right and you avoid penalty strokes.
Your best 10 per cent of rounds at 91 or better match what 20 handicaps shoot on average, proving you have the shots—you just don’t have them all in one round yet. The twelve-stroke typical range shows the widest variance across all levels.
Consistency At Each Handicap Levels
Scratch golfers are twice as consistent as 25 handicaps. But even scratch golfers will tell you their main issue is inconsistency.
Scratch golfers have an SD of 2.7, meaning 68 per cent of their rounds fall within three strokes of their average. They live in a tight 72–77 band most of the time. A 5 handicap’s SD increases to 4.8—their range expands to 74–84. By 25 handicap, the SD hits 6.1, creating a massive 93–105 typical range.
What does this mean practically? A scratch golfer can tell you with reasonable confidence they’ll shoot between 73–76 before they tee off. A 25 handicap genuinely doesn’t know if today is a 95 day or a 103 day until they’re nine holes in.
Reducing variance requires eliminating blow-up holes, tightening dispersion patterns, and making smarter decisions when you get out of position (easy to say…very difficult to do in the moment).
The path to lower handicaps isn’t making more birdies—it’s eliminating doubles and triples. When a 15 handicap shoots 94 instead of 89, it’s usually because of three holes where they made 7 instead of 5.
Keeping your playing stats and following this up with focused practice that targets your weakest areas is the most efficient way to improve your scoring range. When you know your misses from 100 yards are 15 yards right, you can practice to improve this pattern, and allow for it in play, rather than aimlessly hitting range balls every time you shoot a bad score.
Happy golfing – Will @ Break X Golf